TY - JOUR T1 - Burden of salmonellosis, campylobacteriosis and listeriosis: a time series analysis, Belgium, 2012 to 2020. JF - Euro Surveill Y1 - 2017 A1 - Maertens de Noordhout, Charline A1 - Brecht Devleesschauwer A1 - J A Haagsma A1 - A. H. Havelaar A1 - Sophie Bertrand A1 - Vandenberg, Olivier A1 - Sophie Quoilin A1 - Brandt, Patrick T A1 - Speybroeck, Niko KW - burden KW - Campylobacter KW - Listeria KW - Salmonella AB -

Salmonellosis, campylobacteriosis and listeriosis are food-borne diseases. We estimated and forecasted the number of cases of these three diseases in Belgium from 2012 to 2020, and calculated the corresponding number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The salmonellosis time series was fitted with a Bai and Perron two-breakpoint model, while a dynamic linear model was used for campylobacteriosis and a Poisson autoregressive model for listeriosis. The average monthly number of cases of salmonellosis was 264 (standard deviation (SD): 86) in 2012 and predicted to be 212 (SD: 87) in 2020; campylobacteriosis case numbers were 633 (SD: 81) and 1,081 (SD: 311); listeriosis case numbers were 5 (SD: 2) in 2012 and 6 (SD: 3) in 2014. After applying correction factors, the estimated DALYs for salmonellosis were 102 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 8-376) in 2012 and predicted to be 82 (95% UI: 6-310) in 2020; campylobacteriosis DALYs were 1,019 (95% UI: 137-3,181) and 1,736 (95% UI: 178-5,874); listeriosis DALYs were 208 (95% UI: 192-226) in 2012 and 252 (95% UI: 200-307) in 2014. New actions are needed to reduce the risk of food-borne infection with Campylobacter spp. because campylobacteriosis incidence may almost double through 2020.

VL - 22 CP - 38 U1 - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28935025?dopt=Abstract M3 - 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2017.22.38.30615 ER -