According to the European Food Safety Authority, salmonellosis is still one of the main causes of infectious foodborne gastroenteritis in humans. Broilers are an important source of salmonellosis after eggs and pork. Between 1987 and 1999 the trend of human salmonellosis incidence in Belgium increased constantly. However, from 2000 until 2005 a decrease in human cases was observed, probably following the sanitary measures implemented in the poultry breeder and laying sector. In order to decrease human infections it is essential to tackle the problem at the farm level to minimize cross-contamination from farm to fork. This paper seeks to answer two questions: (i) given the Salmonella status of the farm at a certain occasion (equal to the sampling time of the flock), what are the risk factors that the farm will be Salmonella positive at a following occasion? And (ii) what are the risk factors for a farm to be persistently positive for two consecutive flocks? We used surveillance data on 6824 broiler flocks studied for Salmonella infectivity from 2005 to 2006 in Belgium. The farms were tested regularly (3 weeks before slaughter of each broiler flock) for the presence of Salmonella based on multiple faecal samples per flock on a farm yielding clustered data. Generalized estimating equations, alternating logistic regression models, and random-intercept logistic regression models were employed to analyse these correlated binary data. Our results indicated that there are many factors that influence Salmonella risk in broiler flocks, and that they interact. Accounting for interactions between risk factors leads to an improved determination of those risk factors that increase infection with Salmonella. For the conditional analysis, the risk factors found to increase the risk of Salmonella infection on a farm at a current occasion given the previous Salmonella status included: Salmonella infection of day-old chicks (of the current flock); a previously infected flock even though the farm was equipped with a hygiene place to change clothes prior to entering the broiler house; having temporary workmen when there was a separation between birds of different species; and separating birds of different species in the Walloon region relative to the Flanders region. Sanitary measures such as a cleaning and disinfecting procedure conducted by an external cleaning firm, applying the all-in all-out procedure, and hand washing decreased the risk despite their interaction with other factors. From the joint analysis, the most important factors identified for increased risk for persistent Salmonella on a farm involved the interaction between having temporary workmen when there were poultry or farmers in contact with foreign poultry or persons, and the interaction between having temporary workmen when there were poultry or farmers in contact with external poultry or persons.
